The most recent forecast by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO 2020 ISP) exposes the lie that vast areas of Kosciuszko National Park must be sacrificed because the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project is essential for the transition to renewable energy.
Gary Dunnett, Executive Officer of the National Parks Association of NSW stated that “the AEMO forecast shows that Snowy 2.0 is not needed till the next decade. NPA has been advised that by then other cheaper and more efficient energy storage alternatives can be commissioned”.
“Independent energy experts have said from the outset that the case for Snowy 2.0 is wildly overstated (Open Letter to Prime Minister and NSW Premier). Their concerns have now been confirmed by AEMO, Australia’s pre-eminent energy planning and operating entity”, said Mr Dunnett.
The Victoria Energy Policy Centre today published a detailed analysis of the AEMO forecast (AEMO’s ISP: Does it leave Snowy 2.0 high and dry) stating that “Snowy 2.0 plus Tumut 3 produce an inconsequential amount of electricity until 2033 and there are far more capable and much less greenhouse gas intensive ways of facilitating the transition (to renewables).” Their analysis ”concludes emphatically that Snowy 2.0 will not recover its outlay”.
Mr Dunnett concluded, “It is a tragedy that the Commonwealth and NSW governments would collude in the destruction of so much of Kosciuszko National Park. Now the independent energy market operator, AEMO, has exposed the full depth of their mistake, a project that won’t deliver the benefits claimed to justify the project. It is time to stop pouring billions of public dollars into this Snowy White Elephant”.
Media Contact: Gary Dunnett, Executive Officer NPA 9299 0000
The graph below is taken from the VEPC Paper and shows the pumped hydro generation forecasts by AEMO and Snowy Hydro from 2022 to 2042:
- the blue line is AEMO’s forecast for output from both Snowy 2.0 and Tumut 3
- the red line shows Snowy Hydro’s (inflated) forecast for output from (just) Snowy 2.0
AEMO’s forecast shows minimal generation till 2033, which can be provided by Tumut 3 pumped hydro station alone.
Snowy Hydro’s forecast for Snowy 2.0 generation is far higher than the AEMO forecast, even from 2033 onwards, as it takes no account of Tumut 3 pumped hydro generation.